The Winter Games Virtual Medal Table

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Germany to Top PyeongChang Medal Table

Since the initial publication of the Gracenote Sports 2018 Winter Olympics Virtual Medal Table on February 9, Germany is now projected to win one additional gold medal. This will put the country atop the PyeongChang medal table. If Germany finishes in the number one position, it would be the first time since 2006 the country has led the medal count at a Winter Games. Germany also topped the Winter Olympic medal table in 1992 and 1998.

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The German team is forecast to take home a total of 35 medals which would be the country's second best Olympic performance. Germany won a then-record 36 medals at Salt Lake City 2002. The 14 gold medals currently forecast would be a record for Germany, ahead of the 12 medals won in 1998 and 2002.

Norway Stands to Achieve Country’s Best

Since our initial VMT projection published in February, Norway has lost six medals including three golds.  However, a total of 34 medals would still be the country's best, beating the 26 won in 1994 and 2014. Norway's potential success at next year's Winter Games is heavily dependent on the sport of cross country skiing in which 20 medals are at stake for the team.

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Norway’s Breakout Performances:

Norway is sending three potential stars to PyeongChang to compete in cross-country skiing disciplines. Petter Northug, Marit Bjørgen and Martin Johnsrud Sundby are each projected to win four medals. Three of Johnsrud Sundby’s medals are forecast to be golds.

France to Enjoy Best Winter Olympics Ever

France is forecast to have by far its best Winter Games with 20 medals, including nine golds, according to the latest VMT projections. The previous best Winter Games for France were in Sochi in 2014 when the team returned with 15 medals including four golds.

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France’s Breakout Performances:

Gold success for France depends heavily on biathlete Martin Fourcade who is currently forecast to account for nearly half of the country's first place finishes. If Fourcade wins all five of those medals, he will have done better than any French competitor at a Winter Games; only Jean-Claude Killy (1968) and Fourcade himself (2014) have won three medals at a single Olympic game.

Why?
Examples
Methodology

The Virtual Medal Table is an excellent means of engaging fans on any platform. The tool is available to sports organisations, media publishers, sponsors and advertisers looking to activate their involvement in the world’s biggest winter sports event.

  • The VMT provides unique insights into identifying the countries and athletes that are most likely to be successful at the 2018 Winter Games;
  • The VMT is dynamic - monthly updates illustrate the changing balance of power in winter sports leading up to PyeongChang 2018;
  • The VMT is an excellent source of editorial content and will increase engagement with your audience;
  • The VMT can be sponsored and used to activate the marketing programmes of advertisers and brands;
  • The VMT is easily embedded onto any webpage and highlighting its insights on social media will draw extra traffic to your site.


Using performances in all Olympic sports events with world class fields, we are able to produce a prediction of the results for the 2018 Winter Games in PyeongChang if they were held tomorrow. This forecast is in the form of the top-8 in order for each of the medal events at the Games and an overall medal table.

The VMT is a statistical model based on results in Olympic Games, World Championships and World Cups (or equivalent). It takes account of the following:

  • Results. Points are awarded for every result based on rank. Big time or points differences are also rewarded as is dominance for athletes with few results.
  • Time. A recent result is always worth more than an older one based on a continuous function.
  • Competition. More weight is given to a result achieved in a World Championship or Olympic Games than in a World Cup event.