The Winter Games Virtual Medal Table

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Germany takes over at the top

As many winter sports seasons draw to a close, the latest Gracenote Sports Virtual Medal Table (VMT) for Pyeongchang 2018 has Germany on top, overtaking previous leaders Norway. The United States remains third with France holding onto fourth place. A record 29 different countries are still projected to win medals at next year's Winter Olympics.

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All but two nations are within two medals of their projected totals on February 9. Norway has dropped from 40 medals to 34 and Great Britain has improved from three medals forecast in February to six now. In the gold medal column, Canada has lost four since February, Norway is down three and Austria is up two. All other countries are within one gold of the total forecast last month.

France on target for best Winter Olympics

France is projected to have by far its best Winter Games with 20 medals, including nine golds, according to the latest Gracenote Sports Virtual Medal Table. The best previous Winter Games for France was in Sochi in 2014 when the team returned with 15 medals including four gold medals. 

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Gold success for France depends heavily on biathlete Martin Fourcade who is currently forecast to win nearly half of his country's total of first places. If Fourcade wins all five medals he is currently predicted to take, he will do better than any French competitor at a Winter Games as only Jean-Claude Killy (1968) and Fourcade himself (2014) have previously won three medals for France.

British team reliant on short track for record

Elise Christie's success at the recent World Short Track Championships has improved Great Britain's projected medal total in Pyeongchang to six, half of which are forecast to be picked up by the Scottish short tracker. 

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Six medals would be Great Britain's best at a Winter Olympics, beating the four won in Sochi and also at Chamonix 1924. Curling, freestyle skiing, skeleton and snowboarding currently provide realistic medal hopes for the British. The improvement in slalom skier Dave Ryding's performance in this year's World Cup also makes him a genuine medal contender.

Why?
Examples
Methodology

The Virtual Medal Table is an excellent means of engaging fans on any platform. The tool is available to sports organisations, media publishers, sponsors and advertisers looking to activate their involvement in the world’s biggest winter sports event.

  • The VMT provides unique insights into identifying the countries and athletes that are most likely to be successful at the 2018 Winter Games;
  • The VMT is dynamic - monthly updates illustrate the changing balance of power in winter sports leading up to PyeongChang 2018;
  • The VMT is an excellent source of editorial content and will increase engagement with your audience;
  • The VMT can be sponsored and used to activate the marketing programmes of advertisers and brands;
  • The VMT is easily embedded onto any webpage and highlighting its insights on social media will draw extra traffic to your site.


Using performances in all Olympic sports events with world class fields, we are able to produce a prediction of the results for the 2018 Winter Games in PyeongChang if they were held tomorrow. This forecast is in the form of the top-8 in order for each of the medal events at the Games and an overall medal table.

The VMT is a statistical model based on results in Olympic Games, World Championships and World Cups (or equivalent). It takes account of the following:

  • Results. Points are awarded for every result based on rank. Big time or points differences are also rewarded as is dominance for athletes with few results.
  • Time. A recent result is always worth more than an older one based on a continuous function.
  • Competition. More weight is given to a result achieved in a World Championship or Olympic Games than in a World Cup event.